Speculation post: Captain America – Civil War (edited Nov 29)

I think it goes without saying that I love the MCU. It certainly has its weaknesses, but overall it has managed to make me really care about what happens to the characters while also entertaining me in the best way possible. And my favourites, by far, are Steve Rogers and his long-lost BFF Bucky Barnes. So, needless to say, the first trailer for next year’s Captain America: Civil War makes me really, really happy.

And because I put way too much thought into this, I figured I could share some of the ideas I have regarding what exactly happens in the movie.

1) After the demise of SHIELD and what happened in Avengers: Age of Ultron, the World Security Council (from now on known as “the Powers that Be”, aka TPTB) is a bit wary about super-powered beings running rampage and wants them to register and submit to some form of control. Thus the Sokovian Accords the old dude (ETA: who is, it seems, General Ross, who we know as a total a-hole) is shoving in Steve’s face.
2) Tony, having (re-)learned his lesson about taking it upon himself to police the world, is for a change in favour of these sorts of measures.
3) Steve, on the other hand, has the problem that a) after the HYDRA/SHIELD debacle he doesn’t really trust TPTB, and b) TPTB are after the Winter Soldier (aka Bucky) for his crimes, despite Bucky not having been responsible at all for what HYDRA made him do.
4) Bucky is now remembering Steve and seeks him out, enabling Steve & Sam to track him down just ahead of TPTB, thus bringing them officially on collision course with the new regime.
5) Sam, of course, is completely supportive of Steve, trusting Steve’s moral compass above all else. Natasha (who I could have seen going either way) apparently makes the hard choice to join the side of law & order, despite Steve’s involvement and Clint desperately wanting to keep his family secret (and thus safe). Wanda simply doesn’t trust the government and does trust Steve. I’m very much looking forward to the introduction of Black Panther – maybe TPTB bring him in from the outside.
6) Tony takes Steve’s decision very personally, especially after Rhodey gets somehow hurt. It’s a pity they didn’t do a better job building up his relationship with Steve as a true friendship. But I guess Tony’s inner circle is so small, all the Avengers get his trust. And it does give us the absolutely mind-blowing 2-on-1 fight, with Steve and Bucky trading the shield back and forth. I squeed. Loudly. *g*
ETA: 7) A .gif of the bit where Bucky punches Iron Man now has me utterly terrified that we’ll keep roughly following Brubaker’s Cap run and will reach “Death of Captain America” at the end of “Civil War”. Steve’s “death” (even if it’s only temporary in the comics) has been speculated since the limit of Chris Evans’ contract became known (and the fact that Sebastian Stan is contracted for several more movies than Chris). How did I repress that so successfully? (On the other hand, it looks to be in the same location as the epic threeway fight, so maybe not? I somehow don’t think Tony will actually be the one to kill Steve, even if it’s not a brain-washed Sharon like in the comics.)

Altogether it looks quite promising. I didn’t read the entire Civil War arc, only the bits that were part of the Death of Captain America, but I don’t think that would have worked within the MCU. I like that it’s a personal conflict, with Steve motivated in his opposition to the Accords mostly by his desire to protect Bucky.

This fits perfectly into Steve’s characterisation, imo. Who can blame him for not wanting TPTB to get their hands on Bucky? How could he trust them to treat him fairly? Steve Rogers doesn’t like bullies, and he’s not about to let himself be bullied into giving up his best friend. He’s been so lonely, lost in the new century, despite finding new friends (most notably Sam and Natasha), and now he’s got Bucky back – the most important person for him before the War, who remembers what life was like back then, before Steve was Captain America.

I can’t wait for May 6 – with Winter Soldier the Russos made my favourite MCU movie so far, and I trust them to “get” Steve (and Bucky) and to keep the plot contained and on track despite its massive cast.

ETA: This (almost) blow-by-blow breakdown of the trailer, with very insightful input from the Russos themselves, is my favourite article on the subject so far. Because this is everything I want in a nutshell:

“It was important for us to make sure that you very clearly understood that this is a companion to Winter Soldier,” says Joe Russo. “It’s not a companion to Age Of Ultron, this is not a companion to Infinity War…”